Nifty Long Term View

Nifty USD

One of prime reason for not updating this blog was, Elliot wave counts of nifty almost gave no big clue… this happens only the on going pattern is middle phase…. since lack of clarity let me show nifty chart in us dollar terms, based on that we will mark Neowave counts… it looks like triangle pattern.. Volatility was very less comparing to 2004-2011 period.. (monthly chart)

Quarterly chart

let us see nifty months in six months time frame(log Scale)

Nifty 6 months wave chart

I am marking the above counts after deep analysis.. earlier I used follow some historical chart in sensex (and dowjones ) to mark count… I have changed the counts totally. since 2003 2008 rise was steepest in nifty since it is inception. so it must be wave [3]...also in these days I applied neowave counts in many indian stocks and noticed some modification needed in neowave rules… one of main improvement in my neowave study is the rule for terminal impulse.. from above chart we are in wave [iii] of wave [5] … normally wave [iii] should be steep and follow all neo wave rules of trending impulse… but current wave not following rules for trending impulse

in such case we can assume it as an terminal impulse is forming… for me terminal impulse similar like ending diagonal in orthodox Elliot wave. Let see what post pattern implication for terminal impulse

The market action after a Terminal Impulse must retrace the entire pattern in 50% or less of the time consumed by Terminal pattern. Usually, all that required is 25% of the time (give or take few percentage points).

if it is true than after finishing wave [5] nifty should touch 5933 (minimum) … it would be true only if third world war happens in near term… let us see ……. if history folds in future

What made me confusion earlier was, the gurus from whom I learned neo wave are still suggesting in correction pattern is going on… as per neowave rules we yet to see a clear trending impulse pattern. but over the decade you can’t mark with out any impulse pattern… so I decided to add some exceptions in my Rule Book.leaving theory part which would not help full for any trading or investment decision. at this time(2014) when I met a famous Elliot wave Practitioner and asked whether he himself invest in stock ? for that he replied that since he sees correction pattern he is not investing in stocks.. and investing only in real estate.. my portfolio almost doubled from 2015 .. coming to chart as per my counts it is terminal impulse is going on as wave [5]… but as per neowave Rule I am not expecting after finishing that it should retrace fully… at least higher times like Yearly charts… Though it gave great predictions in small time frame (weekly and daily ) ealier…

month wave chart (full view)

so as per my count currently nifty trading in wave {ii} untill nifty holds 9200 it may not require any change my counts

Nifty Monthly Wave Chart

as per monthly chart as long as 11800 holds we can easily consider wave (F) is going on. so we should see wave (G) down side before resume uptrend Let us see weekly chart how it suggests possibility of fall

nifty weekly wave chart

the above chart tells that nifty is in wave (F) …the wave (F) is proceeding as complex correction… the first pattern of complex correction is zigzag pattern followed by wave x now the second pattern forming which can be either triangle or it may form another zigzag…

in next week if nifty breaks 12312 then we can consider another zigzag is forming.. or we can consider a range market (triangle) is forming

Nifty Daily Wave Chart

Trading Strategy

  • Case A if Nifty breaks 12312 on Monday.then Buy Nifty at 11297 with stop loss of 12262…
  • Case B if nifty breaks 12166 with out breaking 12312 then wait for retracement in 12221-12211 zone to short it with stop loss 12255 with minimum target of 12121…

So the conclusion is I am not seeing any fall as long as 11800 Holds … for more long term as long as 9200 holds my bias would be long side only… at same time one can not ignore a small correction till 11000 ( if 11800 Break) in short term

How to make profit without risking much portion of your net worth in stocks. Part 3

This Continuation of Earlier Posts

Part 1

Part 2

Last Two posts I have given only advice or guidance… that one can get from thousands blogs ,you tube channels ,webinar and seminars

But What I Planning to do Live Investment Journal ….. The Investment should be Planned one not!! Based on emotional driven

let us see What I have made in my own Trades … I Exited all of my holding that too Majority Portion on 19-3-2020 when nifty Trading at 7900!!!!!.
The Reason was Majority of my stocks Reached Stop loss Level.. on Wednesday and for protection I had bought 13000PE,125000PE and 10500PE (all are December month 2020 Contracts) … To be honest for First time I am losing confident on future growth from 2014 since my Long term Elliot wave counts suggests more pain

let us come to the topic … in this series I am Planning maintain investment journal involves SIP (Monthly Saving) and my goal is to beat Nifty SIP Returns over the period … Since SIP is a simple Strategy that has given good return with out any big involvement over the period…to be frank I did not done any research on SIP… which I am Planning to do as my first project in python… until that I am planning to continue SIP via little discretionary way

Goal

Invest Rs 10000 Every month for next 15 Years…

Current Status

I have already invested for Last 28 months my performance was as below

both my return and bench mark gave negative return… Since my Portfolio (now Nill Position :)) out performed nifty in Past most of time which gave me confident that I can run the investment journal over the period…. Moreover it is monthly one time action it is easy for me to disclose action plan well before trade taken…

if any one who are doing SIP In mutual fund could benefit from this blog series then Purpose of this Blogs solved…

My Action Plan

Currently I am doing lot of study on Various Trading Systems from long term investment … My Goal is All my followers should know how to pick stocks and when to invest … By know I have only two Rules They are

  • Invest only on Market Leaders
  • Add More Position only when the stock Trades Higher price then Last Purchase..
  • Exit the stock if any big bad news happened

I followed the same Plan and could beat nifty by wide margin… not like many fund managers or advisories(SEBI Registered) I am not starting with the investment from bottom… I already Started the Portfolio when nifty trading at 10500… and nifty already Lost 20% along with my portfolio 17.5%. So any followers may see better return then my Real Return… in Past I had followed many famous(also comparatively Better than fraudsters) firms portfolio and could not match the performance what they share , even though I followed it correctly …

mean time Every Trade update via Blog post would be time consuming work for me.. so I created a Telegram Channel which would act as live portfolio and the goal is to beat nifty return … if it fails to beat for next 3 years then channel would be destroyed…

Whenever my time permits I would write summary in this Blog

Next Action Plan

as of day I had Invested Rs 280000/- the booked loss was Rs 49700/- so I have cash of 230300/- .. Every Month before 4th Day I would Invest more 10000 (most of time the amount taken from my intraday Trading profits)… the 1/3 of Cash Balance and next month commitment would be invested between April 1 to 4 … This Month Stocks would be Market Leaders of top 3 Performing sectors of this year…

The Exact Stocks and bought Rate would shared in Telegram channel

Power SIP

Both you and Me won’t know what would happen in future as corona virus effect expected to cause more damage than 2nd world war in economy… I am eager to prove the purpose of the Post with negative return in these difficult period… Before conclude the the Post Just wanted share the image

Image

So I am ready to travel in under water to reach the goal

how to make profit without risking much portion of your net worth in stocks. Part 2

Hi all ,

Hope All Have read my previous post if not Please read that… if one buy book many like read it as quick as possible it is common human psychology… before buying the book all would know the purpose they want to know that the book can fulfil that goal… (I am not no exception on that )

Any way coming to topic of the subject how to make profit without risking  much portion of your net worth in stocks

The purpose of repeating the topic again is we should not deviate from that

 Just search google  “why people lose money in stocks” you will get lot of information and lot of guides to how to avoid… this article also one among that but only difference it is not just giving an advice instead you are going to act…

Everybody says there is no guaranteed return in stock market

But I am not going to say this..

You may lose money if anything below Happens

  • All Indian Industry leaders Shut their business and all of them files bankruptcy in one day..
  • Indian democracy fails and some country rules india
  • This earth collapse

Tell me  any other asset class including fixed deposit having less risk then this ?? please share your comments..

To get consistent profit you need five Steps… it worked for me over the decade.. five years  ago I took the following five resolutions..

 as of now I could manage to reach stage three… and now trying to reach step 4…

As per my experience first two steps one can make with spending much time… just monitoring is enough. To reach beyond step 3 require more attention (suitable for Full timer) … Since trading and investment is part time profession for me for last 5 years… Now I am Planning to for full time..

Now coming to our topic how to make profit without risking  much portion of your net worth in stocks… I want share my experience to reach this Stage…

The main reason for most of people’s failure in stock market is over expectation…

Please refer the following image

even world best Traders could not exceed their Alpha more than 30%… then why we should aim for that (that too without having any knowledge!!!!)

https://s3.amazonaws.com/gurufocus_userupload/03May20171352451493837565.png

Though there are few Indians may have better return… unlike US in india there is channel to monitor he performance of Traders or Prop Traders…

Some time you can get Performance of PMS companies in india from SEBI… but that too we can’t get their historical performance…

So Only Available Source to common man is Mutual fund performance… I per my little knowledge I don’t saw any MF giving more than 30% CAGR … so If you get 30% per annum consistently  then you are extraordinary one…

Coming to our topic how to make profit without risking  much portion of your net worth in stocks.

in my next post I am going show one strategy which I am following for past which outperformed nifty  by wide margin. Please note that in this many  good advisories or MF even my Other portfolio underperformed nifty  since in nifty only selected stocks lifted nifty to new while majority of stocks trading in NSE under performed…

you are going  invest some outlier stocks that too without using any technical indicators…

but to ache vive this you should do the following simple steps….

that’s  it.. Stay tuned for my next post

Let us make good money using stocks without bothering sensex rise or fall

How to Make Profit without risking much portion of your net worth in stocks

Part 1

You may seen lot of Books and Articles definitely but it is not going to be as Just another one

The Reason is

  • First I am not going be beneficiary by writing this one… and I am not running any advisory or Training Programs …
  • Second I have read thousands of books and hundreds of Seminars and webinars related investments and trading before writing this one..

The main purpose is from 2013 to 2017 I wrote may articles in this blog. From 2018 and 2019 I did not write any articles since I want share some actionable things to visitors of my blog….

Even one person benefitted and earned via my article would be more worthy than thousands views came and wait for another post

For whom this series would helpful?

Definitely this article series not focus Trading. There are many Books, online groups are there for that

How This Article is different than other Investing Books and Investing media ?

Many would teach great theories and great strategies or recommends best stocks and best Mutual funds with Statics reports

This article focus just you and your belief … if your believe Indian companies would earn more profit than earlier than this article is for you

Only you are going to pick stocks this article just going to guide to you

Who Am I ?

This simple question very difficult to answer if you take this seriously … I am asking this question related to investment nothing else 🙂

I generally divide people in two categories

Category A

            These People see stock market a business than gambling… and have good faith on companies they invest… this believes more on compounding than make quick gain randomly

Category B

            These people see Stock market as a casino they never put big amount in their trading account… They love to take payout from time to time than compounding it…Since They don’t believe stock market.(though it has more than 500 years history)..

Some other people came in this category is “Just they want try their luck “attitude..

If every things went fine they will invest more

I want to say to these people Just read the link which shared in next section then decide

Here I focus more on Category A People than Casual traders in Category B People…

Since this article focus mainly protecting the capital than profiting more…

Power of compounding

            When I was young (30 years ago) at that time there was an advertisement in post office offering the investment would be doubled in five years… means they give 14.87% Per annum… On that time I Calculated by this way if I invested 1 Lakh today after 5 years it will become 2 Lakhs after 10 years it will become 4 lakhs after 15 years it will become 8 lakhsAfter 20 years it will become 16 Lakh after 25 years it will become 32 Lakh and at end of 30 years it would be 64 lakh…

If I Invested that one lakh and could  get 15% CAGR( normal sensex ) return than now I would have 64 Lakh with out doing any thing!!!!!… the last word is important since you run a business you might have get more return But 30 years hard work it there…

So In this article I concentrate more on passive income than hard earned income…

In next article I want share 5 steps to reach financial freedom would be sub title of this article series….

Till then I want leave some home work for viewer

The below video explains the eighth wonder of world a must watch

Another presentation which make me to reshape my journey in 2015 why  equity is not bad than real-estate investment

https://www.dropbox.com/s/7r0etwepk28ckv1/InvestorsMeetTranscript110415I.pdf?dl=0

Please go through these links if you have don’t have any faith on stock market. and let me know your comments in comments section that make some enhancement in my next article

Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy. Take advantage of compound interest and don’t be captivated by the siren song of the market.

Warren Buffett

Trading Multiple Straddles

In Trading Continues research would be unavoidable one of my friend suggested to this Strategy which attracted me that it is worth to study further

The Strategy is

in any month nifty likely to trade in 1000 Points range one can benefit from this information by selling 10 Straddles

for example if nifty is trading at 10000 one can sell 9500 Straddle 9600 Straddle to 10500 Straddle since nifty likely to expire between 9500 to 10500 one can benefit time value

My Belief

Market is so dynamic So any fixed Strategy would not give money all times one need to  adjust options Position according to market condition that is the only way to succeed from option trading

let us see how it works

The purpose of this post is not to promote this Strategy.. Since I always like see to maximum draw down then the profit… Unfortunately most of Strategy sellers and technical bookes explains more on profit than drawdown. most of new traders even don’t know what is Drawdown.

Coming to strategy back testing  options Strategy is always tough one if the Strategy requires any adjustments than it increases complexity of the project…..

here I going present My Studies based on this Strategy in different conditions .. unlike my posts this post would be updated quite frequently. I Plan to update my backtest results here…

Before seeing the backtest results I would like say one need atleast 10 Lakh Margin to adapt this Strategy….  I would calculate the rate of return from this margin only. but if one has big portfolio in Cash segment one can get margin by pledging this shares with broker on that  case the income generated from this Strategy would be bonus one…

Let us Start to test this Strategy from worst Day ( as per Assumption )

1

on 19 -9 -2017 Nifty  closed at 10147.55 if one sold Straddles from 9600 to 10600 then he would have collected 3318.90 on 28.9.17 this portfolio ended at 4065.. ie 56025 Loss So By approx 6% Loss from margin capital 10 Lakh…. Note this was period when market moved suddenly the purpose of choosing this period to measure the drawdown…

1

let us look what would be results one took the same Strategy on 5-9-2017 on that time nifty was trading 9952 so Straddles from 9500 to 10500 Taken. On 5-9-2017 the Porfolio was Trading @ 3847 points on 28-9-2017 it ended @ 3492 ie 355 Points profit

one might have yielded 2.5% Return in this Period

1.jpg

let us look the performance from 3-7-2017 to 27-7-2017

on 3-7-2017 the portfolio value was 3651 and 27-7-2017 it was 4754 So 1103 Points Loss

ie 8.5% Loss from margin

if we look below chart the portfolio moved with nifty(Trending market)

1

Let us Another Period it was 2-6-2017 to 29-6-2017 (10100-9100 Straddles )

the portfolio traded on 2-6-2017 at 3632 it closed  3027.75 on 29.6.2017

ie 600 Pts Profit 4.5% Return from margin Capital

1

 

My Take Away from these above Backtests

  • This Strategy works well in sideways Market similar to Short Strangle
  • When Market Starts trending it is better to adjust deltas
  • When Market Stays same Price level for more than 10 Days it is better to close Trades by booking profit

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nifty Neowave Observation as on 28-07-2017

nifty.jpg

  • Nifty Likely trading in wave 3 of minor Degree
  • in minute Counts Wave 3 reached 0-2 trend line this gives some un clarity of ongoing pattern
  • Since 0-2 Trend line in minor degree holds we can assume that Wave 3 is going on
  • above observation same as prev week
  • one can hold long by maintaining stop loss at 9790
  • Since Nifty Trading in wave (v) in minuette degree after completion of wave (v) one can expect a fall up to 9450

Let us see daily chart

nifty1

the clarity in Daily time frame is less as the stating point of wave 5 is quit confusing one.

it may be either 9838 ( on this case wave 4 would shorter in time my one unit ) or 9919

So Trading based on the above chart would tricky one.

One can exit part long either two cases

  1. if market reverses near 10050 ( need to decide this using intraday chart)
  2. if market crashed straightly below 9940

 

in both cases the re entry point (for long) would the high made during the intraday.  one could avoid re entry if the index crossed below 9790 in this case we can assume the impulse waves (atleast in 3 cycle s) ended at 10114 So We can look for shorting opportunities

 

My Wave Structure

NIfty2

 

 

 

 

 

Nifty Wave Observations as on 21-7-2017

Weekly

nifty

  • Nifty Likely trading in wave 3 of minute Degree
  • in minuette Counts Wave 3 reached 0-2 trend line this gives some un clarity of ongoing pattern
  • Since 0-2 Trend line in minute degree holds we can assume that Wave 3 is going on
    The above observation can be in validated if 9650 breached

Daily

nifty1

  • The index may be trading in wave 1 of minuette degree of Wave 5 in minute degree
  • If Prior pattern Wave 4 of minute degree was contracting triangle the index should exceed 9960 (125% Maximum length of CT)
  • So Clarity is less in daily time frame
  • Those who hold longs Can hold it using trialing stop loss below 9650
  • No Fresh Long Recommended unless nifty crosses 9960
  • Nearest gann Support is 9800
  • Nearest gann resistance is 10000
  • Gann Angle range 9840-9889-9939-10039 (Based on low 9448)

Wave Structure (Suspecting)

NIfty2

 

Nifty Wave Analysis on 29-06-2017

Yesterday move changed my view slightly now we have two scenarios

nifty

  • The Index Trading Wave {v} (Intermediate Degree)
  • Under the fifth wave it is trading in Wave (4) (minor degree)
  • Wave 4 looks like forming either an expanding triangle or a neutral Triangle

Case 1 Expanding  Triangle

  • this scenario would confirmed only if 9425 breached
  • Wave E of expanding triangle normally very violent one so expect some big volatile in next 4 to 5 trading session before wave (5) commences
  • An Expanding triangle rarely retraces fully So I hope 9709 would be top for short to medium term
  • Fibonacci support would be 9438

Case 2 Neutral  Triangle

  • this scenario would be Possible as long as 9425 holds
  • A Breach above 9576 on Friday or monday would enhance more chances for this scenario

 

as long as 9370 holds I expect wave {v} would trending impulse else it would be terminal impulse one.  on that case nifty would test 9000 levels

 

 

My Observation in nifty and bank nifty as on 27-06-17

Due to personal works I could not able to write any post last few weeks

here is my Observation in nifty

nifty

  • The Index Trading Wave {v} (Intermediate Degree)
  • Under the fifth wave it is trading in Wave (4) (minor degree)
  • Wave 4 looks like forming an expanding triangle
  • Wave E of expanding triangle normally very violent one so expect some big volatile in next 4 to 5 trading session before wave (5) commences
  • An Expanding triangle rarely retraces fully So I hope 9709 would be top for short to medium term
  • As long as 9540 holds I expect nifty likely to fall minimum 9440
  • 9475 would minor support
  • Gann supports are 9409 to 9415 (then 9319)
  • Fibonacci support would be 9438

Bank nifty Observation

BNF

  • The Index seems to Just finished Wave (3) (minor degree)
  • in Intermediate degree it is still trading Wave {3}
  • inside Wave (v) a Terminal impulse found if this observation is correct then one can expect a minimum fall up to 22470 in next 10 Trading sessions
  • medium term support (Fibonacci ) are 22193 and 21666
  • Nearest Gann support is 23104
  • Nearest Gann Resistance is 23409

Due to time constraint I could not post the details of weekly and monthly charts will try cover it on my next post.

Happy Trading!!!!

 

Nifty Forecast for New financial Year

Observation on Monthly chart as on 31-3-2017

nifty

  • it assumes [i] started from 5118.85 (Main Cycle )
  • Now Wave [ii] is in progress
  • Wave {E} (Primary ) (of Wave [ii]) Retraced slowly. So Possibilities of Neutral Triangle Negated
  • Preferable Pattern in side Wave [ii] would diametric
  • One Cannot ignore possibilities of Irregular Flat in side Wave [ii]
  • RSI Divergence Seen in Monthly chart
  • Currently Wave {F} (primary ) of Wave [ii] is in progress ( assuming a diamteric is forming )
  • if Diametric is forming then we can expect Wave {F} would conclude in APR 17 or May 2017
  • After completion of wave {F} a minimum 60% fall expected within Dec 2017
  • As long as nifty Crosses 9750 one can assume that nifty trading either F Wave of a diametric pattern or B Wave of irregular Flat

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